Australian Money Forum

[Alpha]

what do you guys think about going long oil and short gold.

the dollar could push both up, but oil is a diminishing commodity whereas gold is plentiful with central banks holding tons of it and hesitating to sell.

the premise is that oil will rise more or depreciate less - which ever way things go...

horizon - 1-2 years...

thoughts?

[wulfgar]

The very long term is gold will top oil! Remember the world does have latitude with oil. Everyone changes over to frugal cars and suddenly you will have a glut of oil!
Gold will be trending lower after May and fall to 500 euro's by June 2009.
After that it will take off and never look back! Beware of shorting anything when it is in it's Bull Market!

[Vass]

The feature of oil is that it always bounces back when it reaches the critical top. Demand exceedes supply > price skyrockets > recession > demand drops > oversupply > price falls. Look at 1978-1985 chart.

Gold is different. It will never go beyond the allowed point. Governments have various tools to guaranty this. I.e.: they can buy/sell it whenever they like in relatively unlimited volumes (exchanging it for printed money), or simply prohibit to own the gold.

I would go long on oil ang get rid of it when it reaches say $150.

Not sure about gold.

[wulfgar]

I'd say gold could be down to 850 aud by June 2009, but then climb the charts to something more like 5,000 aud in 2013.

I.e.: they can buy/sell it whenever they like in relatively unlimited volumes (exchanging it for printed money),

Governments cannot sell gold, because they have none of the real stuff anymore. This only leaves one option, exchange unlimited volumes of paper money for it.
The trick is to make it volatile, so it won't be seen as money. The ultimate trick is to corner the market and "fix" it at that measure in the boss currency.
Don't short it after June 2009, you'll only reget it.
The only useful thing about oil, is it make a vast amount of material wealth possible. Humanity can turn their back on it.

simply prohibit to own the gold.

In this rebellious age. What would they use as a justification?

[Vass]

I would go long on oil ang get rid of it when it reaches say $150.

Not sure about gold.

Waiting when it hits 145 to sell.

I think gold then can be a good bet.

[wulfgar]

Oh Vass, whither does oil go? I sold a bit of my gold in late April, when it appeared the peak had passed. I don't expect gold to do anything exciting until late next year. The Cabal forced the price up building a reserve of a few hundred tons. I expect the plan would be to keep gold below $1,000 USD for as long as possible.

I suspect the price of oil, is not as unusual as the screams dictate. $120 oil is about the correct price. I might pay to note that when the full effects of the aformentioned price take effect. 1 to 15 dollars of world GDP will just getting the crude to the gates of the refinery. This indicates just how much this easy forn of energy costs. Let alone the science fiction rubbish of alternative fuel sources, that would take enormus energy input form a sway of breeder reactors.

It may turn out that oil achieves a nominal price of $200 or more over the next couple of years. However ultimately the world cannot afford it and demand will fall as a world wide depression comes in its wake.

The present problems with oil are the result of years of over exploitation. 80 million bpd were produced in 2000. Today production is stagnating at 85 million bpd. But the killer aspect over looked is the decline in quakity of oil. 38 million bpd of light sweet crude produced in 2000. Has gone down to 30 million bpd today.

Calls to increase the pumping will make matters worse, not better!

The light crude is needed to mix with the medium crude to try force the junk through the refineries that are ill adapted to take it.
Looks like buying the all LPG Ford a year ago, wasn't such a bad idea after all!

[Vass]

I would go long on oil ang get rid of it when it reaches say $150.

Not sure about gold.

Waiting when it hits 145 to sell.

I think gold then can be a good bet.

Now is gold time. Would start buying. Buy the end of the year it probably will be around USD1000 mark. It won't pass that mark easily but when it does...

So far gold had very strong "resistors". I think soon enough all those resistors will be trying to save their necks but not the gold price.

I am not talking about buying real stuff over the counter (for Aussie bucks). I am talking about going long gold with some leverage.

[Vass]

I would go long on oil ang get rid of it when it reaches say $150.

Not sure about gold.

Waiting when it hits 145 to sell.

I think gold then can be a good bet.

Now is gold time. Would start buying. Buy the end of the year it probably will be around USD1000 mark. It won't pass that mark easily but when it does...

So far gold had very strong "resistors". I think soon enough all those resistors will be trying to save their necks but not the gold price.

I am not talking about buying real stuff over the counter (for Aussie bucks). I am talking about going long gold with some leverage.

Good call, hah? Should have bought more! I am to conservative

nygold.gif (9.13 KiB) Viewed 1720 times

[wulfgar]

Don't worry, the Cabal will bash gold down to sub 700USD. Maybe even sub 600USD. That will be buying territory!